Weather Columns

November Weather Wrap (12/05/2024)
October Weather Wrap (11/02/2024)
September Weather Wrap (10/05/2024)
August Weather Wrap (09/07/2024)
July Weather Wrap (08/03/2024)
June Weather Wrap (07/06/2024)
May Weather Wrap (06/01/2024)
April Weather Wrap (05/04/2024)
March Weather Wrap (04/06/2024)
February Weather Wrap (03/02/2024)
January Weather Wrap (02/03/2024)
December Weather Wrap (01/06/2024)
November Weather Wrap (12/02/2023)
October Weather Wrap (11/04/2023)
September Weather Wrap (10/07/2023)
August Weather Wrap (09/02/2023)
July Weather Wrap (08/05/2023)
June Weather Wrap (07/01/2023)
May Weather Wrap (06/03/2023)
April Weather Wrap (05/06/2023)
February Weather Wrap (03/04/2023)

By Bill Kappel

November was one for the record books in terms of snowfall, and the good news is that the above average snowfall occurred over both mountains and plains regions. High temperatures were well below normal for the month, while low temperatures were right at normal. There were no significant Arctic air outbreaks, but instead plenty of snow on the ground helped to keep things relatively cool.

Of course, this was quite a change after our record warm October, but this is what makes living on the Palmer Divide so much fun. The weather is never the same for very long, and we get to experience all the seasons during the year, sometimes on the same day.

The additional good news was that the mountains also received copious amounts of snow, with many locations receiving 50-100 inches during November. This got us off to a great start to the snow season in the high country that we will hopefully continue to build on into spring.

The month started the same as October ended, with dry and mild conditions on the 1st and 2nd. But of course, that was about to change in a big way. The first sign of change was associated with moisture that moved in during the evening of the 3rd. There was no strong cold front with this, but instead upslope flow and moisture combined to produce 1-3 inches of snowfall from the evening of the 3rd through the morning of the 4th. But this was just the “primer” for a historic storm that was developing over the Four Corners region.

The 5th started off quietly as an area of low pressure, which was cut off from the main steering current, was slowly moving through the Four Corners region. At the same time, colder air was filtering south over eastern Colorado. The final ingredient which made this storm unique was the low-level wind flow around an area of high pressure to our northeast and the low developing event over the Four Corners. This allowed the low-level wind field to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. All the ingredients came together perfectly over the region: a slow-moving area of low pressure producing upslope flow and upper-level divergence, slow movement of the low pressure systems, cold air, and deep moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere.

Snow began to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with 4-6 inches accumulating before midnight. This initial burst of heavy snow continued into the early afternoon hours of the 6th, with another 6-12 inches accumulating. The heaviest snow took a break for the next 24 hours or so with only 3-6 inches of new snow accumulating.

However, the storm wasn’t finished. Heavy snow picked up again during the morning hours of 8th. This continued through the early morning hours of the 9th. During the period, another 8-16 inches of snow fell. Overall, the Palmer Divide picked up 24-36 inches of snow, but areas just to our northeast in Elbert County received over 40 inches and areas along the Colorado and New Mexico border picked up nearly 60 inches. Definitely a great way to start the snow season.

There is an excellent writeup on this storm from both the Denver and Pueblo National Weather Service offices if you would like to dig deeper in the details: https://www.weather.gov/pub/November2024WinterStorm and https://www.weather.gov/bou/HistoricSnowfallNovember2024

Once this storm departed, things quieted down for the next two weeks with dry conditions. Temperatures fluctuated between below and above normal levels. The coolest temperatures were on the 19th and 20th, quickly followed by well above normal temperatures on the 22nd and 23rd. But these warmer temperatures were ahead of the final storm system of the month. This change was first noticed with light snow during the morning of the 25th, then a stronger push of cold air and moisture on the 27th, when 2-5 inches of snow fell. The month ended with lots of sunshine and relatively cold temperatures.

A look ahead

December can be cold around the region, with daytime highs often staying below freezing and overnight lows that can drop well below zero. But, as noted previously, we can experience a wide variety of weather, with westerly winds producing mild conditions. The month is generally dry but with several light, fluffy snowfalls. Gusty winds are also a common nuisance during the month, especially west of I-25. The chance for a White Christmas is common for the area, with most areas having some snow on the ground, and if we are lucky, fresh snow fall on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

November Weather Statistics

Average High 46.4° (-3.0°); 100-year return frequency value max 55.5° min 38.5°

Average Low 22.3° (+0.9°); 100-year return frequency value max 27.5° min 14.1°

Monthly Precipitation 3.03” (+2.43”); 100-year return frequency value max 3.80” min 0.16”

Monthly Snowfall 42.3” (+31.5”)

Highest Temperature 64° on the 23rd

Lowest Temperature 8° on the 29th

Season to Date Snow 45.5” (+12.3”) (the snow season is from Oct 1 to Sept 30)

Season to Date Precip. 27.48” (+6.41”) (the precipitation season, Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 984

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

October Weather Wrap

A look ahead
October 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

For the second month in a row, temperatures were much warmer than normal and precipitation was below normal in October. This mild and dry pattern is typical of a fall season when we are entering into a La Niña pattern. This generally produces a large and persistent ridge of high pressure over the Southwestern U.S. This keeps the storm track to our north and prevents any intrusions of cold air. This has been the pattern so far in both September and October.

However, as the fall progresses and we head into winter, colder air to our north will start to take over and the ridge of high pressure will begin to weaken and retreat to the south. This will allow intrusion of colder air move in. So, after a slow start to the season, plan for a return to more normal, i.e. colder, weather to start as we head into winter.

Given all this, it’s not surprising that the only day in the first two weeks of the month with below normal temperatures was Oct. 1st and even then, temperatures were not cold, with highs in the mid-60s after morning lows in the upper 30s. From then through the 18th temperatures were above average every day, with the warmest temperatures from the 8th through the 12th. Highs reached into the low to mid-80s on the 2nd and 5th, then were consistently in the mid to upper 70s from the 7th through the 16th.

The one good aspect of the quiet and dry weather was an extended fall season where the fall colors were allowed to peak without any interference from cold and snow. Hopefully you had a chance to enjoy the scenery because you know it won’t last. The only interesting weather during this time was the fact that we saw our first below-freezing temperatures on the morning of the 16th. This was about three weeks later than normal. And not surprisingly, temperatures did not fall below freezing again until the last week of the month.

The only interruption until the end of the month occurred as a cut-off area of low pressure dropped down the west side of the Rockies on the 17th through the 21st. There wasn’t a lot of cold air with this storm, and therefore we mainly received rainfall on the Palmer Divide. However, during the heaviest precipitation on the afternoon and early evening of the 18th, some wet snow mixed in over the highest locations.

The storm brought several days of much needed moisture, with a half inch to an inch accumulating in most locations. The better news was these systems brought the first significant snowfall of the season to the high country, with nearly 2 feet of snow accumulating over the San Juan mountains of southwestern Colorado.

Once this storm departed, quiet and mild weather returned, with lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures again from the 22nd through the 29th. Then, just in time for Halloween, our first winter-type cold front moved into the region. This produced colder temperatures (although only back to normal) and some snow in the region.

A look ahead

November is generally dry and cool around the region. We usually get several light snowfalls interspersed with sunny skies. Gusty winds commonly develop on a couple of days as the jet stream becomes more active and directly affects Colorado. High temperatures average in the upper 40s early in the month to low 40s by the end with overnight lows often dipping into the teens and single digits.

October 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 68.7° (+9.2°); 100-year return frequency value max 67.7° min 50.7°

Average Low 37.5° (+8.2°); 100-year return frequency value max 36.8° min 26.4°

Monthly Precipitation 0.60” (-1.13”); 100-year return frequency value max 4.63” min 0.18”

Monthly Snowfall T” (-11.0”)

Highest Temperature 84° on the 2nd

Lowest Temperature 25° on the 31st

Season to Date Snow T” (-11.0”) (the snow season, Oct. 1 to Sept. 30)

Season to Date Precip. 24.45” (+2.93”) (the precipitation season, Jan. 1 to Dec. 31)

Heating Degree Days 369

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

September Weather Wrap

A look ahead
September 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

Temperatures were well above normal most of the month, with plenty of sunny and warm days interrupted by just a few days with rainfall. Precipitation ended right below normal overall. Unfortunately, we have transitioned into a strong La Niña pattern, which usually means drier than normal conditions for us during fall and winter. This also can lead to some Arctic air intrusions during the winter as cold conditions develop through the northern Plains and southern Canada. So hopefully you enjoyed the warm September.

Temperatures started off warmer than normal over the first week of the month, but this period included some heavy rainfall. Strong thunderstorms developed the afternoon and evening of the 4th and continued into the early morning of the 5th. This was accompanied by gusty winds and areas of severe weather in the region. Temperatures cooled after this storm moved through, enough to bring a dusting of snow to the higher elevations above tree line.

After a dry and partly cloudy day on the 5th, scattered thunderstorms with brief rain showers developed each afternoon on the 7th and 8th. Temperatures warmed back above normal over the next week with highs consistently in the low to mid-80s from the 8th through the 12th. And with the exception of a quick shower on the afternoon of the 11th, dry conditions prevailed. This continued through the 15th with temperatures continuing above normal.

During the last week of summer, temperatures cooled only slightly into the upper 70s, but this was still above normal for mid-September. This quiet period was only interrupted by a few thunderstorms and rain showers on the afternoon of the 17th. Then just in time for the start of fall, our coolest weather of the month moved in. This produced rain starting during the early evening of the 21st which continued into the 22nd. Temperatures continued to cool as well. By the next morning, temperatures were in the upper 30s with rain, a definite sign that winter isn’t too far away. In the mountains, this wet and cold weather meant the first widespread snowfall.

After this system departed, the rest of the month was quiet and warm. Sunshine was the rule, with just scattered afternoon clouds. Temperatures remained well above normal for the rest of the month, with cool mornings. The good outcome from this was a nice progression into fall with leaves starting to change.

A look ahead

October can be an active weather month for the region with our first snowy conditions often experienced. Most years, we seem to get a good snowfall around Halloween, and after a warm and dry September, we could use a wet and cold October. Snow can be heavy at times during any part of October. For example, over 20 inches of snow fell from Oct. 9-10 in 2005 and 2006 saw over 24 inches of snow fall in less than 24 hours on Oct. 26. Of course, the big storm some of us remember occurred around during October 1997, when nearly 4 feet of snow and blizzard conditions shut everything down for several days. But we are just as likely to get mild and sunny conditions, and any snow that falls generally melts quickly, so enjoy those sunny days when you can.

September 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 77.0° (+6.1); 100-year return frequency value max 77.5° min 63.5°

Average Low 46.1° (+4.9); 100-year return frequency value max 46.7° min 36.1°

Monthly Precipitation 1.07” (-0.73”), (60% below normal); 100-year return frequency value max 4.34” min 0.40”

Monthly Snowfall 0.0” (-0.4”)

Highest Temperature 85° on the 3rd

Lowest Temperature 35° on the 23rd

Season to Date Snow 0.0” (-0.4”), (100% below normal) (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip. 12.45” (-7.32”), (37% below normal); (the precip season is from Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 201 (-167)

Cooling Degree Days 87 (+64)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

August Weather Wrap

A look ahead
August 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

Drier than normal conditions continued during August. After an above-normal winter and early spring, we have been much drier through the summer season. This is the expected pattern as we have transitioned from a El Niño pattern last fall into a La Niña pattern this spring and summer. Temperatures were also warmer than normal for the month, with plenty of days well into the 80s and even some low 90s.

The month started with temperatures in the upper 80s and generally dry conditions. Moisture moved into the region on the 5th with thunderstorms developing that afternoon. The moisture and warm conditions allowed areas of strong thunderstorms to produce heavy rain at times across the region. This change in pattern stuck with us for most of the month as we finally transitioned to a more normal mid-summer pattern.

In this case, moisture associated with the North American Monsoon shifted over the region. This allowed daily thunderstorms and rain showers to develop. In these situations, the areas that received the heaviest rainfall can vary significantly over short distances. One day it may be over your location and the next a few miles away. The good news is that the monsoon moisture brings a lot of beneficial moisture but is lacking the overall instability to produce widespread severe weather. Therefore, we get the best of both worlds, much needed rainfall without the large hail or tornadoes.

This pattern lasted until the last week of the month. During this period, most areas around the Tri-Lakes region received 1-3 inches of rainfall. During the last week of the month, the monsoon moisture shifted back to the west, leaving us generally high and dry. Temperatures were warm again, and most days saw plenty of sunshine with just some minor buildups of afternoon clouds. A cold front moved through the region on the 29th, and this left behind dry conditions and a feel in the air of the changes to come over the next month or so.

A look ahead

September is a transition month for the region, with the last tastes of summer mixed in with our first morning freezes by the end of the month. Leaves begin to change as well and in some years a little snow can happen; September 2020 is a good example. The overall weather pattern is generally one of tranquility, with our chances for thunderstorms dwindling and blizzard conditions not quite ready for prime time. We are often greeted with sunny, pleasant afternoons, with highs from the mid-70s early in the month to the mid-60s later in the month. Our first sub-freezing low temperatures usually occur during the third week of the month, so prepare those tender plants.

August 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 82.2° (+1.7); 100-year return frequency value max 83.9° min 72.9°

Average Low 53.0° (+2.6); 100-year return frequency value max 55.2° min 46.8°

Monthly Precipitation 1.67” (-1.23 “, 43% below normal); 100-year return frequency value max 6.07” min 0.94”

Monthly Snowfall 0.0”

Highest Temperature 90° on the 17th

Lowest Temperature 45° on the 31st

Season to Date Snow 0.0” (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip. 11.38” (-6.11”, 35% below normal) (Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 25 (-48)

Cooling Degree Days 100 (+56)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

July Weather Wrap

**Above:** Smoke reportedly from Canadian wildfires casts a gray haze across the region on July 22, obscuring details of Mount Herman and the Rampart Range as seen from the Jackson Creek area. Photo by Allen Alchian.

Editors note: Bill Kappel is unavailable this month so we do not have a weather column, but Bill will be back next month.

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

June Weather Wrap

By Bill Kappel

A look ahead
June 2024 Weather Statistics

June was the second month in a row of well below normal rainfall, but unlike May temperatures were well above normal. This combination of warm and dry conditions of course was not good for our plants, which would do better with a more auspicious start to the North American Monsoon system season and more frequent rainfall in July. This is also a reflection of the transition from a strong El Niño pattern to a La Niña pattern this spring. La Niña has begun to set up in the Pacific, shifting the storm track farther north and allowing the region to be dominated by high pressure and not allowing high levels of low-level moisture to build in the region.

Not surprisingly, the month started off dry and mild with highs reaching the mid-70s to mid-80s every day from the 1st through the 8th. The lack of thunderstorm development was unusual with only two afternoons/early evenings seeing thunderstorms. And only one of these, on the 7th, produced measurable rainfall.

Over the next 10 days, even warmer air moved in, producing our first heatwave of the year. Highs increased from the mid-70s on the 9th, 10th, and 11th to the mid-80s on the 12th and peaking in the low 90s on the 13th. Note that 90-degree temperatures on top of the Palmer Divide only happen about five-10 times per year. Most afternoons did see a buildup of afternoon clouds and a few brief showers and thunderstorms, but nothing that amounted to more than a trace in most cases. So we didn’t get any relief from the heat. Of course, we also didn’t get any severe weather either.

An uptick in moisture and therefore more active conditions finally affected the region from the 18th through the 22nd. This started with a push of cooler air during the morning of the 18th, dropping highs from the upper 80s the day before to the upper 60s and low 70s that afternoon. This also produced some low clouds, fog, and rain showers, a nice relief from the heat. The cool, upslope conditions continued on the 19th, with low clouds and fog sticking around all day. This kept us cool, with highs only hitting the upper 50s and more rain showers at times. The remnant moisture also allowed scattered thunderstorms to form each afternoon over the next couple of days, more typical of a mid-June weather pattern. Even with all the cool and moist weather, most of us only managed to accumulate a quarter to half-inch of rainfall, certainly not enough to alleviate our dry conditions.

The month ended with more warm conditions, with highs hitting the upper 80s to low 90s from the 23rd through the 28th. We did manage to squeeze out a few afternoon thunderstorms and brief rain showers each afternoon and evening, with the heaviest rainfall occurring on the last day of the month when three waves of storms moved through from the late afternoon through early morning hours. This doubled our rainfall for the month with a half inch to an inch accumulation.

A look ahead

July can be an active weather month around the region as the Southwest Monsoon season gets going. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are a common occurrence, and when they are able to tap into higher levels of moisture, flash flooding can result. Hot, stagnant weather can also take hold for a few days at time, with highs hitting the 90s on the warmest days.

June 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 81.9° (+4.5°) 100-year return frequency value max 82.5° min 66.3°

Average Low 50.1° (+5.8°) 100-year return frequency value max 50.7° min 40.2°

Highest Temperature 91°F on the 13th, 25th

Lowest Temperature 43°F on the 1st, 19th

Monthly Precipitation 0.72” (-1.13” 82% below normal) 100-year return frequency value max 6.94” min 0.15”

Monthly Snowfall 0.0” (-0.1” 100% below normal)

Season to Date Snow 137.1” (+14.6” 10% above normal) (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip 8.50” (-2.72” 20% below normal) (the precip season is from Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 45 (-50)

Cooling Degree Days 73 (+45)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

May Weather Wrap

A look ahead
May 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

May was cool and relatively dry, an unusual combination where we would normally expect cooler than normal temperatures to be accompanied by a couple good snowfalls. But not this year.

The first week of the month was dry with temperatures right about normal. Overnight lows were just below freezing most mornings, with afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s. An unsettled pattern then affected the region for the next week from the 9th through the 15th. During this period, daily rain showers mixed with snow at times were seen from the 9th through the 12th. High temperatures were well below normal on the 9th and 10th, only reaching the 40s. This was a good example of how important elevation is for determining whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, which is especially relevant during the fall and spring. In this case, heavy, wet snow accumulated above 8,000 feet, with 1-2 feet in Teller County, while we just received cold rain mixed with snow.

Temperatures warmed slightly over the next few days, and we received only rainfall. The unsettled period ended with area of thunderstorms, some producing decent hail especially for areas farther east of Black Forest.

Temperatures continued to warm over the next couple of days, moving into the mid-60s on the 16th, then mid-70s from the 17th through 19th. On the 18th, a series of thunderstorms developed, producing rounds of rain showers that afternoon and early evening, with hail covering the ground in some areas of Black Forest.

For the remaining two weeks of the month, conditions were generally quiet and dry. We did have a quick cool down on the 21st and 22nd and a few showers and thunderstorms. But outside of this period, most days started off quietly with partly to mostly cloudy skies developing during the afternoon. Temperatures dipped below freezing on the mornings, of the 22nd and 24th. And highs jumped into the low to mid-70s on the 23rd, 25th, and the 27th-30th giving the region our first real feel of summer-like conditions as we head into June.

A look ahead

By June we can usually say goodbye to our chance of snowfall but hello to frequent afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Most of the time we can expect warm, sunny days with those afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

May 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 64.2° (-1.5°)

100-year return frequency value max 75.7° min 57.9°

Average Low 36.1° (-2.7°)

100-year return frequency value max 43.2° min 32.5°

Highest Temperature 78° on the 30th

Lowest Temperature 26° on the 9th

Monthly Precipitation 0.60”

(-2.04” 80% below normal)

100-year return frequency value max 6.94” min 0.15”

Monthly Snowfall Trace

(-5.7” 100% below normal)

Season to Date Snow 137.1”

(+13.9”, 10% above normal)

(the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip 7.78”

(-1.06” 12% below normal)

Heating Degree Days 461 (+143)

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

Other weather columns

April Weather Wrap

A look ahead
April 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

For the second April in a row, precipitation was below average. However, unlike last year, we have had ample moisture heading into spring and therefore, the lower-than-normal moisture last month isn’t as big of a problem. Along with the drier-than-normal conditions, temperatures were above normal. This was mostly result of overnight lows being well above average and no significantly cold mornings during the month.

The first two days of the month were cool and unsettled with light snowfall from the afternoon of the 1st into the morning of the 2nd. Most of us received 1-2 inches of snowfall, nothing too heavy but enough to remind us that winter-like weather wasn’t over yet. After this quick shot of cool weather and light snow, conditions were quiet for the next two weeks, with only a trace of snow occurring with a brief snow shower on the 6th. Temperatures were generally within 5 degrees above or below normal during the entire period from the 3rd through the 13th, when temperatures warmed to well above normal from the 13th through the 15th. Temperatures reached into the upper 60s and low 70s during this period and was our first real taste of spring.

The mild conditions were ahead of a pattern change that allowed a series of storm systems into the region out of the Pacific Northwest. Most of these bypassed the Front Range without any significant precipitation. Therefore, we didn’t have an upslope or cold air to help with precipitation production. The first change came in during the morning and afternoon of the 16th, when snow showers developed across the area and produced a quick dusting of snow.

Finally, a real cold front with persistent upslope conditions moved in during the morning of the 18th. This brought well-below-normal temperatures and areas of fog to the region. There were some light snow showers and flurries at times as well as this pattern stayed entrenched for the next few days. Highs were held in the 30s to low 40s during the period. A more organized disturbance moved across during the afternoon of the 20th and produced more widespread snow showers, with 1-2 inches accumulating in the region.

Mild and dry conditions quickly returned, with highs jumping into the 60s and low 70s from the 22nd through the 25th. This quick warmup was ahead of our strongest storm of the month. This system began to affect the region during the afternoon and evening of the 26th, with good old rain showers and a few thunderstorms developing. This was associated with a series of low pressures moving through the Intermountain West, toward the Four Corners, then redeveloping over eastern Colorado. This pattern also drew in a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, producing heavy rain at times to our east and areas of severe weather.

Rain showers continued during the evening and early morning hours of the 26th into the 27th. As the atmosphere continued to cool, rain turned to heavy wet snow during the early morning of the 27th. And as is typical this time of the year, elevation was very important for who saw heavy snow and who saw no snow. For most areas above 7,000 feet, 2-6 inches of snow accumulated during the morning and afternoon of the 27th. Unsettled and cool conditions continued on the 28th with a few showers developing, but this was the last moisture of the month. Quiet conditions moved in for the last couple days of the month, with temperatures moving from below normal on the 28th to above normal on the 30th.

A look ahead

May often brings a wide variety of weather conditions in the region, from warm, sunny days to severe thunderstorms and hail, and we are not done with snowfall. We can see very wet weather, sometimes heavy snow and other times our first 90 temperatures of the year. So be prepared for just about anything.

April 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 56.9° (+0.4°)

Average Low 30.5° (+2.9°)

Highest Temperature 72° on the 14th

Lowest Temperature 19° on the 8th

Monthly Precipitation 1.84” (-1.22”, 38% below normal)

Monthly Snowfall 9.5” (-15.2”, 65% below normal)

Season to Date Snow 136.9” (+19.4”, 15% above normal) (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip. 7.23” (+1.03”, 15% above normal) (the precip season is from January 1 to December 31)

Heating Degree Days 640 (-49)

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

Other weather columns

March Weather Wrap

A look ahead
March 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

March this year had its usual swings between winter and spring and was of course punctuated by a major snowstorm during the middle of the month. Temperatures were a little below average overall, but there were no real cold or warm periods. Precipitation and snowfall were above average again, which is good news because moisture during this time of the year is critical for the start of the growing season. After a slow start to the snowfall this season, we have managed to put three months in a row of above normal snowfall, bringing our seasonal total to above average and we still have another month or so of good snowfall potential.

The month started off mild, with highs reaching the upper 50s to low 60s, about 15-20 degrees warmer than normal for the start of March. This was interrupted by a quick-moving cold front that brought a dusting of snow and cooler temperatures on the 3rd and 4th. After a couple of dry days, another cold front moved in bringing a couple days of unsettled conditions. This produced a couple inches of snowfall along with a few rumbles of thunder on the 8th. This was our first sign of the changing seasons as we begin to see more convective activity in the atmosphere.

Quiet and mild conditions then moved back in over the next several days as the atmosphere began to build up moisture and energy ahead of an anomalously strong and unsettled pattern that would bring significant impacts to the region during the second week of the month.

This next storm was a combination of several unusual factors that normally don’t all come together at once over our region. First was a cold upper-level area of low pressure moving out of the Pacific Northwest and dropping south along the Intermountain West. At the same time, low-level wind fields began to draw in moisture from the southeast out of the Gulf of Mexico. And finally, a cold front began to slide down the Front Range of the Rockies. This combination of factors set the stage for a widespread, heavy snow event across the region.

The area of upper-level low pressure cut off from the main flows sat over northern Arizona/Southern Utah for several days, sending several waves of energy over the region to help enhance lift. This made very efficient work of the moisture that moved in from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold air ensured snow for the Palmer Divide. The first signs of the storm began during the late afternoon of the 13th, with scattered snow showers. Snow began to fall heavily later that evening, with several inches accumulating before midnight. Temperatures continued to cool as well, and winds kicked in. This produced heavy snow and strong winds, with blizzard conditions through the night and into to the next morning. Snowfall accumulated at rates of 2-3 inches per hour at times, with over a foot by the time the sun came up on the 14th.

Snow continued through the day and into the night, with another 8-12 inches accumulating before midnight. The storm finally began to wind down the next morning, leaving behind a winter wonderland. Around the Palmer Divide, anywhere from 20-30 inches of snow accumulated, causing travel issues and some fallen trees. But we didn’t get the worst of it. In the foothills, 40-60 inches accumulated, making this the largest snowfall since our infamous March 2003 storm. See the photo on page 24.

Of course, the good news with this storm was the beneficial moisture that it left behind, with 2-3 inches of liquid equivalent that slowly melted into the soil over the next couple weeks.

Mostly sunny conditions and quiet weather moved back in from the 16th through the 23rd, and the strong March sun angle began the process of melting the snow a few inches each day. By the time the last storm of the month moved in on the 24th, most of the snowfall from the previous event had melted away. The exceptions were the large drifts and piles in the shaded and forested regions. This final storm was colder than previous storms and produced more wind and blowing snow, but because it was colder it did not have as much moisture to work with. Therefore, only 2-6 inches of new snow fell throughout the region on the 24th and 25th.

Once again, the springtime atmosphere was unstable as well, producing some thundersnow and graupel during the afternoon of the 24th. This was further evidenced by the convective snow showers that developed during the afternoon of the 26th behind the departing storm, very reminiscent of summer thunderstorms developing over the mountains and moving off the Front Range and over the Palmer Divide, only this time of the year they produce snow instead of rain.

After this last storm departed, mild air and quiet conditions again returned. The month ended with temperatures moving from the 40s to the upper 50s and low 60s along with gusty winds at times.

A look ahead

April is known for a wide range of weather conditions in the region and is on average our snowiest month of the year. We can see 70° temperatures one afternoon and blizzard conditions the next. Several recent years have seen over 50 inches of snow accumulate during the month. Of course, it also melts very quickly, often adding beneficial moisture to the soil and helping the vegetation, which is just getting started.

March 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 47.6° (-4.4°)

100-year return frequency value max 57.9° min 38.0°

Average Low 23.0° (+1.4°)

100-year return frequency value max 27.0° min 12.0°

Highest Temperature 60° on the 2nd

Lowest Temperature 8° on the 28th

Monthly Precipitation 2.35” (+0.75”, 32% above normal)

100-year return frequency value max 4.29” min 0.22”

Monthly Snowfall 37.9” (+17.6”, 47% above normal)
Season to Date Snow 127.4” (+36.6”, 29% above normal)
(the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip. 5.39” (+2.15”, 40% above normal)
(the precip season is from Oct 1 to Sept 30)

Heating Degree Days 922(+9)

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappell@ocn.me.

February Weather Wrap

A look ahead
February 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

February was warm and wet, with overall moisture values coming in greater than the 100-year recurrence interval. In other words, there was less than a 1% chance in any given February that we would receive as much moisture as we did last month. These higher levels of moisture available also meant temperatures were warm as the origin of most of the storms that came through was the Pacific Ocean and not the Arctic. Lows never dipped below zero for us during the month.

Another benefit of the numerous storms moving through from the west/northwest was the amount of snow that accumulated in the mountains. This brought snowpack levels up to average by the end of the month. This pattern is typical of an El Niño winter overall for most of Colorado, so the mild and wet conditions were expected.

The Palmer Divide region was affected by a new storm about once per week. The first one moved through on the 2nd and 3rd. This storm was of sub-tropical Pacific origins and was therefore very mild for early February. In fact, the storms started out with a little rain/snow mix during the afternoon of the 2nd before everything turned into a heavy, wet snow. This was more like April than February. Heavy snow quickly accumulated along the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide, with amounts quickly falling off in lower elevations. New snow amounts ranged from 3-12 inches with high variability over short distances.

Mild air moved in behind this system, with highs reaching into the 50s by the 6th ahead of another active system which began to affect the region on the 9th. This storm moved in from the northwest and therefore was cooler than the previous storm. This meant all snow and blowing snow. Snow fell heaviest on the 10th, with 8-12 inches accumulating. This left behind a good snowpack across the area, and clearing skies on the 11th allowed temperatures to drop to the single digits.

A week of quiet weather moved in from the 11th to the 15th, with temperatures warming to the upper 40s and low 50s by the end of the period. A weak cold front brought light snow and cool temperatures on the 16th and 17th, with 1-3 inches of new snow around the region.

Temperatures then warmed again over the next few days, reaching the mid- to upper 50s from the 19th through the 21st. A very quick cool down accompanied by a spring-like pattern produced a few snow showers and even a few rumbles of thunder on the 22nd. Sunny and mild conditions quickly returned with highs back into the mid- to upper 50s from the 24th though 26th, helped with gusty westerly winds at times.

One final cold front moved through on the 27th, with a quick shot of snow that afternoon and evening into early on the 28th. This brought temperatures back to below normal levels to end the month.

A look ahead

March is known for a wide range of weather conditions in the region. We can see 70° temperatures one afternoon and blizzard conditions the next. Many of us remember the blizzard of March 2003 when we received 30-50 inches of snowfall that shut down the region. However, snow that does fall begins to melt quickly this time of the year, providing beneficial moisture for our plants as we head into spring.

February 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 43.9° (+4.2°) 100-year return frequency value max 51.9° min 32.8°

Average Low 19.2° (+6.4°) 100-year return frequency value max 21.9° min 3.7°

Highest Temperature 59° on the 26th

Lowest Temperature 7° on the 11th

Monthly Precipitation 2.25” (+1.31” 240% above normal) 100-year return frequency value max 2.10” min 0.02”

Monthly Snowfall 31.9” (+14.1”, 80% above normal)

Season to Date Snow 90.0” (+19.5”, 27% above normal)

Season to Date Precip. 3.16” (+1.51”, 200% above normal)

Heating Degree Days 971 (+67)

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

January Weather Wrap

A look ahead
January 2024 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

For the second consecutive year, temperatures were below normal and precipitation was above normal in 2023. This continued the trend around the Palmer Divide so far this winter and hopefully will continue into spring. The month started off warmer than normal and ended warmer than normal, but most days in between were cold and unsettled.

After a quiet first three days of the month, a period of cool and snowy conditions moved in. This produced measurable snowfall each day from the 4th through the 8th. During the period snow wasn’t continuous but off and on each day, accumulating 6-10 inches for most of us.

In the middle of the month, a strong blast of Arctic air invaded the region and most of the country. High temperatures reached 40F on the afternoon of the 9th, but that was the last time we reached above freezing until noon on the 16th. This is an extremely long time frame for us as even in very cold outbreaks we usually scour out the cold air within a few days and westerly, warming winds kick in.

However, this time, the cold air mass was deeper than normal and had a couple of reinforcing surges. Westerly winds never materialized until the end of the event. Temperatures reached the teens and 20 below zero on five consecutive nights from the 13th through the 18th. During the period, snowfall wasn’t heavy, partly because the air was so cold, but we managed to pick up 2-4 inches over the period.

Mild conditions moved in quickly behind the departing cold air, with highs reaching into the mid- and upper 40s on the 17th and 18th. A quick shot of cold air and light snow moved in overnight on the 18th and kept temperatures cold on the 20th with highs in the low 20s. Once again, mild conditions moved in quickly, with high temperatures 30 degrees warmer than the day before, hitting the low 50s. Temperatures remained slightly warmer than normal over the next week, with highs in the 40s each afternoon from the 21st through the 25th.

The final storm of the month began to affect the region during the early evening of the 25th. However, this storm was of Pacific Ocean origins, and this meant relatively mild conditions. Temperatures were only slightly below freezing during the event, producing heavy, wet snowfall that felt more like April than January. The relatively warmer air mass was also able to hold higher levels of moisture, and this resulted in some quick accumulations, with the storm producing 4-7 inches from the evening of the 25th through the morning of the 26th. After this system departed, mild temperatures returned to the region to end the month. Highs moved through the 40s on the 27th to the 50s from the 28th through the 31st, a bit of a January thaw before we head into our snowiest months of winter.

A look ahead

February is often a transition month as we move from the dry and cold conditions in December and January toward relatively warmer and wetter conditions of March and April. Precipitation averages around an inch with just over 20 inches of snow expected and average high temperatures in the 30s. It can get very cold in February with Arctic air making brief pushes into the region. However, days begin to get a little longer, which leads to some nice, sunny days, and the snow that does fall begins to melt faster.

January 2024 Weather Statistics

Average High 40.1° (-°) 100-year return frequency value max 48.4° min 30.8°

Average Low 13.4° (-0.2°) 100-year return frequency value max 26.6° min 6.6°

Highest Temperature 58° on the 14th

Lowest Temperature -21° on the 15th

Monthly Precipitation 0.91” (+0.28” 39% above normal) 100-year return frequency value max 1.56” min 0.01”

Monthly Snowfall 16.4” (+”, 10% below normal)

Season to Date Snow 58.1” (+5.3”, 10% above normal) (the snow season is from Oct 1 to Sept 30)

Season to Date Precip. 0.91” (+0.20”, 22% above normal) (the precipitation season, Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 1257 (+160) 1097

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

December Weather Wrap

A look ahead
December 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

The El Niño pattern was in full effect in December, with temperatures and precipitation above normal around the Palmer Divide. During El Niño patterns, the storm track over the southern U.S. becomes stronger and more active. This often brings a series of storms through California and the southwestern U.S. and along the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. At the same time this allows warm air to move into the central Plains and Ohio Valley, which bottles up the cold air in Canada. Therefore, cold air outbreaks are less common. And this December we didn’t see any Arctic fronts move through. This was the opposite of 2022, when some very cold air moved in the week before Christmas.

The month started out with some light snow each of the first three days, although temperatures were only slightly below average. During the period, 2-4 inches of snow fell, with highs reaching the 30s each afternoon. Mild conditions moved in soon after, with highs reaching near daily record levels in the mid- to upper 60s on the 6th. As is normal, this was ahead of a storm system that was approaching the region from the west. This storm brought a quick change in the weather starting the morning of the 8th, with areas of snow showers increasing to snow and blowing snow during the day and continuing into the early morning of the 9th. This storm brought another 4-8 inches of snow to the region over the two-day period. Temperatures were cooler as well, with highs reaching the mid-20s on the 9th and overnight lows in the single digits above and below zero.

Another change moved in for a few days, but this time temperatures didn’t warm up as much, only reaching normal levels in the 30s and 40s before another quick-moving storm brought 1-4 inches of snow to the area and cooler temperatures on the 13th. Of course, the nice part about each of these snowfalls during the first two weeks of the month helped get us in the Christmas spirit with plenty of fresh snow on the ground. However, a longer streak of mild and dry conditions then moved back in from the 15th through the 22nd. Temperatures peaked on the 19th, with highs reaching the upper 50s to low 60s.

However, this pattern began to break down just in time for Christmas with a large area of low pressure developing over eastern Colorado and slowing moving into Kansas and Nebraska. Initially this storm brought a couple inches of snow into Christmas. Then a brief break occurred on Christmas Day before the storm continued to intensify to our east. At the same time, the storm took an unusual pattern and retrograded back to the west. This produced a prolonged period of strong northerly flow and moisture in the region from Christmas night through the morning of the 27th. This snow came in waves with a good period of heavy snow and wind the morning of the 26th and a second period of heavier snow and wind during the afternoon and evening of the 26th.

There were a couple of unique aspects with this storm. First, its northerly flow meant that the topography of the Palmer Divide was very important in developing snowfall and keeping temperatures cold enough for snow. This meant areas to our north around Denver and to our south in Colorado Springs received very little snowfall and in some cases rain showers. The other aspect was the location of the low-pressure system to our east. This left us right on the far western edge of the storm, and therefore areas farther east received more snowfall and areas farther west much less. The dividing line was right around I-25, with areas to the east picking up 6-10 inches and areas to the west only a couple inches at most. During this period, temperatures were cool as well, with highs below freezing and lows touching zero on Christmas morning.

After this storm departed, conditions were quiet and sunny heading into New Year’s weekend. Temperatures responded, climbing from the 30s on the 28th to the 40s on the 29th and the 50s on the 30th.

A look ahead

January can see the coldest temperatures of the year, but there is often a proverbial “January thaw” where mild temperatures make brief appearances. Of course, that’s been the case all winter so far, so hopefully this January will see a shift in the overall pattern to cold and snowy conditions. Unfortunately, precipitation is usually on the low side, with amounts generally less than an inch. The month experiences numerous sunny and windy days, with quick shots of snow in between.

December 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 43.2° (-0.5°). 43.7 100-year return frequency value max 50.5° min 32.6°

Average Low 19.4° (+6.1°) 13.3 100-year return frequency value max 22.4° min 5.4°

Monthly Precipitation 1.51” (+0.50”, 44% above normal) 100-year return frequency value max 2.82” min 0.00”

Monthly Snowfall 27.2” (+9.5”, 45% above normal)

Highest Temperature 66° on the 5th

Lowest Temperature 0° on the 25th

Season to Date Snow 41.7” (+2.2”) (the snow season is from Oct 1 to Sept 30)

Season to Date Precip. 26.38” (+4.09”) (the precipitation season, Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 1046 (-239) 1285

Cooling Degree Days 0 (0)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

November Weather Wrap

A look ahead
November 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

November was warmer than normal, the complete opposite of last year, but I’m sure most of us weren’t complaining. We did get three periods of unsettled weather that allowed our precipitation to end up right around normal, but most days between those storms were mild.

The first week of the month was mild and dry with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Each day saw lots of sunshine with areas of high and mid-level clouds at times. They produced some spectacular mountain wave clouds along with colorful sunrises and sunsets.

The first of three periods of unsettled weather then moved in on the 8th, with an initial frontal passage early in the morning. Clouds continued to fill in throughout the morning, with light snow beginning just before noon. Light snow continued off and on most of the day and ended just after midnight on the 9th. This system was relatively warm by November standards and therefore the heaviest snow occurred on top of the Palmer Divide with much less snowfall accumulating down around the I-25 corridor.

Dry conditions returned from the 10th through the 18th, with temperatures generally above average each day. The warmest period occurred from the 14th through the 16th, with highs well into the 60s each afternoon.

Another quick shot of cold air and snow moved in late on the 19th. Snow and some blowing snow developed that evening and continued throughout the next day. This system was colder than the previous storm and therefore produced more widespread snow across the area. Most of us accumulated 2-4 inches during the storm.

Once this storm moved out, sunshine and mild conditions returned, but only for a few days. Highs jumped into the mid-40s on the 21st, then southwesterly winds kicked in and pushed temperatures back into the mid- and upper 60s on the 22nd. But as usual, these mild temperatures were ahead of a much colder airmass. The first effects of this colder air moved in Thanksgiving morning and continued to fill in during the day. Flurries began to develop that evening as temperatures continued to fall, reaching the teens before midnight. Colder air continued to move, which meant the teens were as warm as we got on the 24th. Along with that, strong northerly winds helped to keep light snow, flurries, and blowing snow in place all day. As wind shifted out of the south, fog developed that day and evening, producing cold, windy, and snowy conditions.

Cold and windy conditions continued into the 25th as the last portion of this storm moved out of the region. This produced more light snow and blowing snow through the morning and afternoon and kept temperatures in the teens for the second day in a row before conditions finally settled down. Of course, the clearing skies and fresh snow also allowed temperatures to fall quickly that evening, dropping to the single digits by the morning of the 26th.

As with the previous two snowy periods, quiet and seasonal conditions quickly returned, and temperatures returned to normal levels to end the month with plenty of sunshine.

A look ahead

December usually is cold around the region, with daytime highs often staying below freezing and overnight lows that can drop well below zero. But we can experience a wide variety of weather, with westerly winds producing mild conditions. The month is generally dry, however, with several light, fluffy snowfalls. Gusty winds are a common nuisance during the month, especially west of I-25. The chance of a White Christmas is fairly good for the area, with some snow on the ground and, if we are lucky, fresh snowfall on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

November 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 51.3° (+1.9°) 100-year return frequency value: max 55.5° min 38.5°

Average Low 23.7° (+2.3°) 100-year return frequency value: max 27.5° min 14.1°

Monthly Precipitation 0.61” (-0.08”) 100-year return frequency value: max 3.80” min 0.16”

Monthly Snowfall 11.1” (+0.3”) Highest Temperature 72° on the 5th; Lowest Temperature 5° on the 25th

Season to Date Snow 14.5” (-7.3”) (the snow season is from Oct 1 to Sept 30)

Season to Date Precip. 24.87” (+3.80”) (the precipitation season, Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 874 (+6)

Cooling Degree Days 0 (0)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

October Weather Wrap

By Bill Kappel

A look ahead
October 2023 Weather Statistics

October was again warmer than average with below-normal precipitation. Almost the entire month saw quiet and dry weather, with exceptions at the beginning and end. Overall for the year, we are still above normal from a precipitation perspective, so hopefully that will continue through the winter and spring. And given that we have an El Niño pattern set up in the Pacific, there is a higher-than-normal chance of above-normal snowfall, especially later into winter and through the spring. Let’s hope this pattern plays out.

The other nice aspect of the quiet weather most of the month was that the sunny skies, warm days, and cool nights were perfect for the development of fall colors. This resulted in a nice progression of fall colors as we moved through the month and no storms or strong winds coming through to freeze the leaves or blow them away too quickly.

The month started off mild with highs in the mid-70s on the 1st and 2nd. This warmth also helped to produce some last remnants of summer-type weather, with thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon and early evening of the 2nd. These produced some quick rainfall accumulations of nearly a half inch in spots. However, for most of us, this was our last measurable precipitation for several weeks until the 28th. The only exception were some showers of both rain and snow at times from the afternoon of the 11th off and on through the morning of the 13th. This was an extended dry period even for a time of the year when quiet weather conditions are common.

The quiet pattern was finally broken starting on the 26th and continuing through the 29th. The first change was signified by a cold front that blew through during the late afternoon of the 26th bringing cooler air, low clouds, fog, and a few flurries. After this initial push, cool and quiet weather took hold on the 27th before a stronger push of cold air and moisture moved in on the 28th. This second, stronger cold front was overrun by moisture and lifted aloft. This allowed the atmosphere to moisten up and, when combined with the upslope flow, produced widespread snow from the 28th through the afternoon of the 29th.

Temperatures were well below normal as well with highs dropping from the low 70s on the 26th to the low 40s on the 27th and low 30s on the 28th. Bands of snow began to develop during the afternoon of the 28th and continued off and on through the 29th. This system was different than our typical snow events because it was driven by strong winds and rising motion high in the atmosphere combined with cold air at the surface. This resulted in a wide range of snowfall totals over relatively short distances. Temperatures were coldest on the 29th through the morning of the 30th, as highs struggled to reach 20 degrees and morning lows dipped all the way to the single digits above and below on the 30th. Sunshine returned to end the month, but the clear skies and lingering snow meant a cold start to each day, and also kept afternoon temperatures below average through Halloween.

A look ahead

October 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 62.0° (+2.5°) 100-year return frequency value max 67.7° min 50.7°

Average Low 31.2° (+1.9°) 100-year return frequency value max 36.8° min 26.4°

Monthly Precipitation 0.41” (-1.12”) 100-year return frequency value max 4.63” min 0.18”

Monthly Snowfall 3.6” (-7.4”)

Highest Temperature 78° on the 20th

Lowest Temperature -1° on the 30th

Season to Date Snow 3.6” (-7.4”) (the snow season, Oct 1 to Sept 30)

Season to Date Precip. 24.26” (+2.74”) (the precipitation season, Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 570

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

September Weather Wrap

A look ahead.
September 2023 Weather Statistics.

By Bill Kappel

Temperatures were above normal most of September, only interrupted by a wet and cold period during the middle of the month. Precipitation ended right about normal, but it all occurred during a four-day period.

The first week of the month was well above normal with high reaching the upper 80s on the 1st and 2nd, then mid-80s on the 3rd and 4th. Skies were clear to mostly clear with afternoon clouds building.

Temperatures cooled back to normal over the next few days with continued mostly sunny skies. Highs were in the mid-70s to mid-80s from the 5th through the 9th. The weather pattern changed on the 10th with a frontal passage late that morning. This brought with it high levels of moisture. Clouds built in and showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening. Cloudy and wet conditions continued into the next day with areas of fog and rain off and on all day. During the period, 1-2 inches of rainfall accumulated in the region. Temperatures were cool as well, with highs in the 50s and 60s. During this time, the first snowfall of the season occurred in the mountains, with several inches accumulating above tree line, a sign of things to come.

Unsettled conditions continued to affect the area over the next couple of days. This included cool temperatures, clouds, more rainfall, and mountain snow. Our coldest day of the month occurred on the 15th, with highs barely reaching 50F and lows in the mid- to upper 30s on the 15th and 16th. The chilly temperatures and clear skies on the morning of the 16th also resulted in the first frost of the season for many of us.

However, after this brief wet and cool period, quiet conditions again moved in. The remainder of the month was right around normal with highs consistently in the mid- to upper 70s and lows in the 40s. Except for the 19th and 20th, every day was dry as well. Even these two days only had brief sprinkles, barely enough to wet the pavement. The coolest day during the period from the 16th through the 30th was the 23rd, when highs held in the upper 60s and the low again touched the upper 30s. The warmest time during this period was the last few days of the month when we were in the upper 70s to low 80s.

A look ahead.

Of course, the big storm some of us remember occurred during October 1997, when nearly 4 feet of snow and blizzard conditions shut everything down for several days. But we are just as likely to get mild and sunny conditions, so enjoy those sunny days when you can. This fall and winter we are expected to enter an El Niño pattern. If the other teleconnections are supportive, this would normally result in above normal snowfall for the winter and spring, so let’s hope for that.

September 2023 Weather Statistics.

Average High 74.6° (+3.7); 100-year return frequency value max 77.5° min 63.5°

Average Low 44.8° (+3.6); 100-year return frequency value max 46.7° min 36.1°

Monthly Precipitation 1.67” (-0.13”); 100-year return frequency value max 4.34” min 0.40”

Monthly Snowfall 0.0” (-0.4”)

Highest Temperature 89° on the 1st

Lowest Temperature 34° on the 16th

Season to Date Snow 0.0” (-0.4”) (100% below normal) (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip. 23.85” (+4.08”) (20% above normal) (the precip season is from (Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 182 (-153)

Cooling Degree Days 23 (+0)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

August Weather Wrap

A look ahead
August 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

August was generally uneventful around the Palmer Divide, especially compared to the last few months where we had extremely active weather. Temperatures were slightly warmer than normal, and precipitation was slightly lower than normal.

The first half of the month saw the typical quiet morning, afternoon clouds, and scattered thunderstorms and rain shower pattern. This is the normal pattern, but something we hadn’t seen consistently so far this summer, because the typical North American Monsoon system has not been fully formed this year. This has been the result of various weather patterns across the United States that have been slow to change.

The pattern began to reflect more normal conditions later in July and into August. Of course, there was a major disruption early in the month with the remnants of Tropical Storm Hilary bringing record rainfall to many areas of Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada. Then right on its heels was Tropical Storm Harold, which moved into south Texas, up the Rio Grande basin and into the Four Corners. This added lots of moisture to the region and produced significant rainfall in western Colorado and the mountains. This was welcome in those areas, as they have been extremely dry all summer and desperately needed the rainfall.

During the first two weeks of the month, most of us received 1-2 inches of rainfall, but no single day had any severe weather, just brief rain showers. Drier conditions took hold for the second half of the month and along with that, warmer conditions. Highs were consistently in the 80s from the 15th through the 24th. Temperatures peaked in the upper 80s on the 18th and 19th.

The first cold front of the season dropped temperatures by 20 degrees on the 25th and, when combined with low clouds and rain showers, definitely brought a feel of fall to the area. Temperatures stayed cool the next day before jumping back to the low 80s on the 27th. The end of the month saw a seesaw in temperatures with a few scattered showers mixed in as high temperatures varied between the low 70s and the mid-80s.

A look ahead

September is a transition month for the region, with the last tastes of summer mixed in with our first morning freezes. Leaves begin to change by the end of the month as well and in some years a little snow can happen. The overall weather pattern is generally one of tranquility, with our chances for thunderstorms dwindling and blizzard conditions not quite ready for prime time. We are often greeted with sunny, pleasant afternoons, with highs from the mid-70s early in the month to the mid-60s later in the month. Our first sub-freezing low temperatures usually occur during the third week of the month, so prepare those tender plants.

August 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 79.0° (-1.5); 100-year return frequency value max 83.9° min 72.9°

Average Low 51.7° (+1.3); 100-year return frequency value max 55.2° min 46.8°

Monthly Precipitation 1.30” (-1.60”, 56% below normal); 100-year return frequency value max 6.07” min 0.94”

Monthly Snowfall 0.0”

Highest Temperature 88° on the 16th, 18th, 19th

Lowest Temperature 46° on the 7th

Season to Date Snow: 0.0” (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip.: 21.51” (+3.45”, 20% above normal) (Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 47 (-15)

Cooling Degree Days 56 (+12)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

July Weather Wrap

July Weather Wrap

A look ahead
July 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

It was back to normal in July after a couple months of record cold and wet conditions. Temperatures averaged right at normal for the month with a mix of below and above normal conditions. Precipitation was slightly below average, but we are well above normal for the year overall.

The first week of the month was a continuation of June, with below normal temperatures and wet conditions. Temperatures were below normal every day from the 1st through the 8th, with the coldest day occurring on the 5th when high temperatures didn’t reach 600F.

A warmer and relatively dry period then took hold for the next week, with highs getting back to normal from the 9th through the 16th. Highs reached the upper 70s to upper 80s each afternoon, with most days just seeing afternoon clouds build up. But a lack of moisture in the region meant thunderstorms were not common as storms produced rainfall only on the 10th and the 15th.

The pattern finally began to shift to more monsoon-like conditions during the third week of the month as high pressure built in over the region from the southwest. This meant both an active pattern with daily thunderstorms each afternoon and evening and warmer temperatures before the storms formed. Temperatures were consistently in the mid-80s to low 90s from the 16th through the end of the month. Our hottest period occurred from the 24th through the 26th, with highs topping out at 93 on the 25th. This is right on cue for the warmest temperature of the month, with the third week of July representing the time of the year when temperatures are warmest on average overall.

Rainfall from the daily rounds of thunderstorms was hit and miss, with some areas receiving nearly an inch in an hour while just a few miles away only a few tenths of inch accumulated. The month ended with a bang, as several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall developed during the evening of the 31st, producing 1-2 inches of rainfall for most locations.

A look ahead

August is the last true “summer” month for the region. We are often greeted with sunny, pleasant mornings that turn into afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Highs during the month range from the mid-80s at the beginning of the month to mid-70s at the end. Temperatures at night get more comfortable as well, often dipping into the 40s.

July 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 81.5° (-1.0°) 100-year return frequency value max 87.6° min 75.3°

Average Low 52.2° (+1.2°) 100-year return frequency value max 56.2° min 46.9°

Highest Temperature 93°F on the 25th

Lowest Temperature 42°F on the 1st

Monthly Precipitation 3.15” (-0.22” 6% below normal) 100-year return frequency value max 6.03” min 0.98”

Monthly Snowfall 0.0” Season to Date Snow 0.0” (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip 20.21”(+4.53” 40% above normal) (the precipitation now season is from Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 33 (+22)

Cooling Degree Days 91 (+1)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

June Weather Wrap

A look ahead
June 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

June was the second month in a row of well-below normal temperatures and well-above normal rainfall. This was especially the record cold and wet period that was most active during the first three weeks of the month and included several days of severe weather. For the month, temperatures averaged about 4 degrees below normal and precipitation was more than three times the normal amount.

Numerous records were set as well along the Front Range and eastern plains. This included the second wettest period from May 1 through June 17 at the official Denver observational site where records extend back to 1872 and the coldest June 1-17 at that same site since 1872. Daily record rainfall occurred on several days during the month.

All this moisture and daily cloudiness kept temperatures very cool, with our first 80-degree temperatures not occurring until June 18. The last time we hit the 80s in the region was way back on the last day of summer, Sept. 20, 2022. The end of June also marks the end of the snow season. After a slow start we managed to make up a lot of ground from December through April and ended the season quickly with just a small amount of snow recorded in May and none in June.

Overall, we were slightly below normal for the season, just barely breaking above the 100-inch mark. Of course, the abundant moisture in May and June means we are far above normal for the seasonal precipitation having almost reached our yearly total in the first six months.

A cumulonimbus cloud looms large over Black Forest, reflecting the sun as it begins to set in the west at around 8 p.m. on June 21. The Gleneagle community is pictured below the cloud that occurred between two heavy rain storms with large damaging hail on the summer solstice. By 8:30 p.m., the cloud had been replaced with gray skies and electrical activity as the second storm moved in. Photo by Natalie Barszcz.

The first week of the month was wet and cool, with 1-2 inches of rain accumulating. The heaviest rainfall during the period was on the 3rd, when we had cloudy and cold conditions all day. High temperatures only managed to reach the low 50s that afternoon, making our weather feel more like Seattle in the winter than Colorado in the summer.

After a couple days of relatively dry but cool conditions, another week of wet weather moved in. This period included daily thunderstorm activity, with a few days producing hail and flash flooding. The heaviest rain fell on the 7th and the 11th through the 12th. Runoff was exacerbated by the saturated soils as the ground has had no time to dry out.

Extreme shifts in weather are something Coloradans are used to, but the weather changes from June 15 to 16 were even more wild. Early evening on June 15, a double rainbow appeared over the Lake of the Rockies community after a warm shower. The next day, seconds after a severe thunderstorm warning was issued by the National Weather Service in Pueblo, the skies opened up and dumped 2 inches of pea-size hail on the ground, knocking leaves off trees and damaging plants. In one Monument yard, a downspout shaped like a dragon looked like it was vomiting hail. *Photo by Michael Weinfeld.*

The 14th saw a brief respite from the rainfall, but we were greeted by hazy skies this day as smoke from Canadian wildfires moved into the region. This smoke was quickly cleared out, however, with another round of heavy rainfall and areas of hail on the 15th and 16th.

Our first truly summer-like weather finally arrived on the 18th, with sunny skies and temperatures touching 80 degrees. The next afternoon was even warmer, hitting 84 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. After another mild and mostly sunny day on the 21st, more moisture moved back in. This time there was a high amount of instability to combine with the very moist air mass. This combination results in strong to severe thunderstorms on the 22nd and 23rd. Several tornadoes were reported in the region, with the strongest, an EF3 occurring south of Grenada and another near Highlands Ranch. Hail, sometimes large enough to cause damage, occurred both days. On the 22nd the most dramatic aspect was the hail that injured several spectators at Red Rocks Amphitheater. On the 23rd, parts of the Palmer Divide were hit with hail up to 2 inches in diameter, enough to cause dents in cars and damage to roofs.

Finally, a long stretch of relatively dry and quiet weather moved in to end the month. Mainly dry conditions, with sunny skies were the rule from the 24th through the 30th. This allowed the region to begin to dry out a little, just in time for the start of the North American Monsoon season. One benefit of all the moisture is all the plants are happy and everything is green. Now let’s hope our two wettest months of the year (July and August) are well-behaved.

A look ahead

July can be an active weather month around the region, as the Southwest Monsoon season gets going. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are a common occurrence, and when they tap into higher levels of moisture, flash flooding can result. Hot, stagnant weather can also take hold for a few days at time, with highs hitting the 90s on the warmest days.

June 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 70.6° (-6.8°); 100-year return frequency value; max 82.5° min 66.3°

Average Low 44.7° (+0.4°); 100-year return frequency value; max 50.7° min 40.2°

Highest Temperature 84°F on the 19th

Lowest Temperature 37°F on the 2nd

Monthly Precipitation 6.58″; (+4.63” 330% above normal); 100-year return frequency value; max 6.94” min 0.15”

Monthly Snowfall: 0.0”; (-0.1” 100% below normal)

Season to Date Snow 105.4”; (-17.1” 14% below normal); (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip 16.96”; (+5.94” 45% above normal); (the precip season is from Jan 1 to Dec 31)

Heating Degree Days 230 (+135)

Cooling Degree Days 9 (-19)

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

May Weather Wrap

A look ahead
May 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

Near record monthly precipitation occurred during May with total precipitation exceeding 5 inches for all of us and some areas receiving nearly 10 inches. This was the wettest May since 2015. Unlike that year, almost everything fell as rainfall this month, with just a little snow on the Palmer Divide. This was a different story up in the mountains and shows how important just a few hundred feet of elevation difference can be this time of the year between snow and rain.

All the moisture and clouds kept high temperatures relatively cool. Conversely, the excess moisture kept overnight low temperatures relatively mild. This meant overall temperatures were normal for the month. Another interesting aspect of the weather during May was that several days had a good amount of smoke in the air. This wasn’t from any fires in Colorado, but instead was drawn into the region from the numerous fires burning well to our north in Alberta, Canada. This was the result of a very unusual pattern where a strong ridge of high pressure was present in the Pacific Northwest, with a strong low pressure over the Rockies and upper Midwest and another high pressure over the eastern U.S. This blocked the flow and allowed the smoke to get pulled in low over the Rockies and brought into the Front Range of Colorado.

Weather was quiet and relatively dry during two periods, the first week of the month and the last week of the month. Between these two periods most days received rainfall, sometimes heavy. Most days saw the typical late spring weather pattern with quiet weather in the morning, then building into cumulus clouds by late morning and early afternoon. These would then continue to build into thunderstorms that moved generally west to east and produce an hour or so of rainfall. This type of storm pattern results in variable rainfall accumulation amounts depending on whether a given storm moved over your neighborhood or not.

The strongest storm of the month moved through the region from the 9th through the 12th. This storm moved on the West Coast then into our region and strengthened significantly, producing widespread heavy rain and heavy snow in the higher elevations. Ahead of this storm, southwesterly winds produced our warmest temperatures of the month, with upper 70s on the afternoon of the 9th. The next morning, we woke up to low clouds and a very moist air mass. Then the initial thunderstorms associated with this system formed early in the afternoon. This included severe storms and a few tornadoes just to our north and east. The next round of thunderstorms developed around 4 p.m. that afternoon and produced heavy rain and hail.

As this storm continued to intensify, it stalled out to our south and transitioned from a convective event to produce clouds and steady rainfall. Cooler air also moved in, dropping snow levels. Heavy rainfall continued that evening and into the 11th. Temperatures dropped just enough on the morning of the 11th to produce some measurable snow between 8-10 a.m. over the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide. Snow levels then rose just enough to keep us in rain the rest of the day while at the same time producing heavy snow along the Rampart Range and into Teller County.

The storm continued to produce rainfall and cool temperatures through the next morning. By the time the storm was done, we had received 4-8 inches of rainfall, which produced some flooding in low-lying areas and along I-25. The other unusual aspect of this storm was the nearly continuous rainfall for almost the entire period.

A look ahead

By June we can usually say goodbye to our chance of snowfall but hello to frequent afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Most of the time we can expect warm, sunny days with afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

May 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High: 65.0° (-0.7°)

100-year return frequency value max 75.7° min 57.9°

Average Low: 39.4° (+0.5°)

100-year return frequency value max 43.2° min 32.5°

Highest Temperature: 77°F on the 9th

Lowest Temperature: 31°F on the 1st, 6th

Monthly Precipitation: 5.91” (+3.27” 200% above normal)

100-year return frequency value max 6.94” min 0.15”

Monthly Snowfall: 0.5” (-5.2” 91% below normal)

Season to Date Snow: 71.6” (-50.8” 42% below normal) (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip: 10.38” (+1.54” 15% above normal) (the precip season is from July 1 to June 30)

Heating Degree Days: 398 (+80)

Cooling Degree Days: 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

April Weather Wrap

By Bill Kappel

April was a “back to normal” month around the region, with temperatures just a little cooler than normal overall and precipitation, including snowfall, right about where we would expect. But as always during this time of the year, the transition from winter to spring never goes smoothly. This meant the path to normal was anything but normal, with swings from winter to spring and back to winter happening every few days. This was a nice change from last April when we had a record dry April. And given that moisture in April is very important for us to kick off the growing season, the moisture we received was extremely beneficial.

The first week of the month was a good example of most of the month. Temperatures started off in the low to mid-60s over the first three days with dry conditions. But a cold front moved through just after midnight on the 4th, bringing a swing to cold conditions and snowfall. Temperatures were in the 30s and 40s from the 4th through the 6th with 4-8 inches of snow accumulating. In addition, clearing skies and fresh snowfall allowed temperatures to fall quickly on the morning of the 5th. The low dipped down to the single digits above and below zero, which are near-record levels for this time of the year.

Quiet and mild conditions quickly returned over the next week, with our warmest temperatures of the month occurring from the 10th through the 12th. Temperatures warmed through the 50s on the 7th, to the 60s on the 8th and 9th to near daily record levels in the mid- to upper 70s on the 11th and 12th. Of course, this stretch of mild weather was interrupted by another cold front and quick shot of wet snow on the 14th and 15th. This round of snow and cold started off with some good old rain showers and graupel during the late morning and early afternoon, then quickly switched to heavy snowfall. There was even some thunder mixed in during the afternoon. Snow continued that evening and through the next morning, with another 4-8 inches accumulating in the area.

The weather pattern again swung to the mild side over the next few days, with 50s and 60s returning from the 16th through the 19th. However, another round of cool and unsettled weather moved in starting on the 20th and continuing through the 28th. During this unsettled period, several rounds of snow and wind affected the area with 5-12 inches accumulated during the week. However, we actually got “lucky” as there was significantly more snowfall in regions to our south and to our northeast.

The last few days of the month saw a return to mild conditions, with lots of sunshine and 60s for highs.

A couple of interesting things to note during this time of the year. First, the snow that does fall melts very quickly, even when the temperatures are cold. This is because the sun angle is much higher, similar to August. Second, elevation plays a critical role in snowfall amounts as we head into spring. The 7,000-foot level is often a dividing line between snow and rain and even a few hundred feet of elevation can make a big difference. Just going from I-25 in Monument to the top of the Palmer Divide around Hodgen and Highway 83 can be the difference between 6 inches of snow and no snow accumulations. Just more of the fun things we get to enjoy around the Tri-Lakes region.

A look ahead

May often brings a wide variety of weather conditions to the region, from warm, sunny days to severe thunderstorms and hail, and even some snowfall. We can see very wet weather, sometimes heavy snow and other times our first 90-degree temperatures of the year. So be prepared for just about anything.

April 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High: 56.3° (-0.2°)

Average Low: 25.5° (-2.1°)

Highest Temperature: 77° on the 11th, 12th

Lowest Temperature: 1° on the 5th

Monthly Precipitation: 2.34” (-0.62”, 20% below normal)

Monthly Snowfall: 24.4” (-2.3”, 96% below normal)

Season to Date Snow: 71.1” (-46.5”, 9% below normal) (the snow season is from July 1 to June 30)

Season to Date Precip.: 4.47” (-1.73”, 28% below normal) (the precip season is from January 1 to December 31)

Heating Degree Days: 724 (+35)

Cooling Degree Days: 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

February Weather Wrap

A look ahead
February 2023 Weather Statistics

By Bill Kappel

Overall, February was pretty close to normal, but it took a winding road to get to normal. Temperatures overall came out right about normal, with high temperatures slightly warmer than normal and lows right at average. Snowfall was slightly above normal as several of the snowstorms occurred with very cold temperatures and high snow/water ratios.

The first week of February was mild and dry with temperatures peaking about 10-15 degrees above normal on the 4th and 5th as highs reached the mid-50s. This also helped melt some of the snowpack that had built up during January. This warmth was interrupted by a series of cold fronts that affected the area starting on the 6th.

The first push of cooler air came through without any moisture, as the snow stayed in the mountains. Temperatures dropped to normal on the 6th and 7th. As the system departed, the back side of the storm swung through and produced snow and wind from the evening of the 8th through the morning of the 9th. Some decent snowfall rates occurred as well, with several inches accumulating in about two hours just before midnight on the 8th. Temperatures were cold behind the system with highs only reaching the low to mid-20s. Fresh snow on the ground and clear skies also made for efficient radiational cooling, and lows dipped just below zero on the morning of the 10th.

High pressure built in behind this system and brought in mild air from the west/southwest. Temperatures responded, jumping from the upper 30s on the 10th to the mid-50s on the 11th. Mild conditions stuck around through the next couple days as the west/southwest flow kicked in ahead of the next approaching storm system.

This next storm had more moisture to work with and again another shot of Arctic air, all just in time for Valentine’s Day. Snow started to fall by late afternoon on the 14th and continued through the 15th. During the storm, 4-8 inches of snow arrived along with chilly temperatures. Highs only reached the teens on the 15th and dipped below zero again on the morning of the 16th. This storm also had a lot of wind, so significant blowing and drifting occurred, making for some tough driving conditions at times.

Just like earlier in the month, mild conditions quickly returned, with sunshine and high pressure building in from the west/southwest. This allowed temperatures to jump back above normal from the 18th through the 21st. Highs again peaked in the low to mid-50s during the period. However, the good snowpack helped to temper highs from reaching their full potential.

These mild conditions were again interrupted by the final shot of cold air for the month, and this was the coldest yet. A strong push of Arctic air moved in during the early morning of the 22nd, accompanied by a strong cold front, gusty winds, fog, and flurries. Cold air continued to deepen through the morning with snow starting to fall as well. The cold air resulted in light and fluffy accumulations of 3-6 inches with plenty of blowing snow off and on during the 22nd and 23rd. Temperatures tumbled to the singled digits during the day on the 22nd and well below zero that night and the morning of the 23rd. But the Arctic air was shallow and began to drain from the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide during on the 24th. This allowed us to hit the low 40s that afternoon while lower elevations of the plains only reached the teens and 20s.

The remainder of the month again saw a return to mild conditions along with gusty winds at times. Conditions were dry for the last week of the month, with each day seeing average to above average temperatures. These gusty winds along with the stronger late-February sunshine also did a lot of work to melt our snowpack. But don’t get too excited, the next month is our snowiest time of the year.

A look ahead

February 2023 Weather Statistics

Average High 41.5° (+1.8°) 100-year return frequency value max 51.9° min 32.8°

Average Low 12.8° (-0.0°) 100-year return frequency value max 21.9° min 3.7°

Highest Temperature 56° on the 11th, 25th

Lowest Temperature -11° on the 23rd

Monthly Precipitation 0.73” (-0.21” 23% below normal) 100-year return frequency value max 2.10” min 0.02”

Monthly Snowfall 19.5” (+1.8”, 10% above normal)

Season to Date Snow 65.1” (-5.4”, 8% below normal)

Season to Date Precip. 1.72” (+0.07”, 4% above normal)

Heating Degree Days 1034 (-4)

Cooling Degree Days 0

Bill Kappel is a meteorologist and Tri-Lakes resident. He can be reached at billkappel@ocn.me.

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